# Spurious relationship

Evaluación | Biopsicología | Comparativo | Cognitivo | Del desarrollo | Idioma | Diferencias individuales | Personalidad | Filosofía | Social | Métodos | Estadística | Clínico | Educativo | Industrial | Artículos profesionales | Psicología mundial | Estadística: Scientific method · Research methods · Experimental design · Undergraduate statistics courses · Statistical tests · Game theory · Decision theory In statistics, a spurious relationship (o, a veces, spurious correlation) is a mathematical relationship in which two occurrences have no logical connection, yet it may be inferred that they do, due to a certain third, unseen factor (referido como un "confounding factor" o "lurking variable"). The spurious relationship gives an impression of a worthy link between two groups that is invalid when objectively examined. Contenido 1 General example 2 Estadística 3 Ver también 4 External links and references General example An example of a spurious relationship can be illuminated examining a city's ice cream sales. These sales are highest when the city's rate of drownings is highest. To allege that ice cream sales cause drowning would be to imply a spurious relationship between the two. In reality, a heat wave may have caused both. The heat wave is an example of a hidden or unseen variable. Statistics The term is commonly used in statistics and in particular in experimental research techniques. Experimental research attempts to understand and predict causal relationships (X → Y). A non-causal correlation can be spuriously created by an antecedent which causes both (W → X & Y). Intervening variables (X → W → Y), if undetected, may make indirect causation look direct. Debido a esto, experimentally identified correlations do not represent causal relationships unless spurious relationships can be ruled out. En la práctica, three conditions must be met in order to conclude that X causes Y, directly or indirectly: X must precede Y Y must not occur when X does not occur Y must occur whenever X occurs Spurious relationships can often be identified by considering whether any of these three conditions have been violated. The final condition may be relaxed in the case of indirect causation. Por ejemplo, consider a pistol duel. Two men face off and fire at each other. If one man dies as a result of the other man's shot, we can rightly conclude that the other man caused his death. Sin embargo, if a doctor saves the wounded man's life (thus violating the third premise), this does not undermine causation, only direct causation. The biological damage (W) sustained from the shot (X) causes death (Y), not the shot itself, allowing medical intervention. See a more detailed discussion at causation. See also Correlation does not imply causation External links and references Burns, William C., "Spurious Correlations", 1997. es:Relación espuria he:מתאם אקראי nn:Spuriøs samanheng This page uses Creative Commons Licensed content from Wikipedia (ver autores).

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